Because of the summer lull

FFriday the 13th is an ominous day for many people. In this respect, they are happy when such a day goes by quickly without major incidents. For the less superstitious, it’s a normal day of the week. When the Dax topped 16,000 points for the first time two weeks ago on that August day, this probably made the horror of many investors fade a little.

Since then, the German standard value index has not yet made it back above this level, but it is at least keeping close. With currently almost 15,800 points, the Dax is only about 200 points or 1 percent below the record and has also been 15 percent up since the beginning of the year. In the last five trading days, the Dax has barely moved, at least the bottom line – a week on the stock market of remaining at a high level.

Because the weekly balance of other stock indices is also similar. The FAZ index is slightly positive. The same applies to the M-Dax. Nevertheless, the German small cap index even made it to an all-time high on Wednesday. Even with an increase of a good 16 percent this year, it surpasses its big brother. The major stock indices on Wall Street in the United States have also changed little. However, drawing conclusions about the general stock market environment from this data alone is misleading. Many investors have held back from the US Federal Reserve Symposium that begins this Friday in Jackson Hole. In addition, however, many company reports and economic data caused some movement in the market.

Is “sustainable” really sustainable?

The news of investigations by the American Securities and Exchange Commission, for example against the German fund company DWS on suspicion of fraudulent labeling of its sustainable investments, caused its share price to slide by up to 14 percent on Thursday and also highlights the industry. A general meeting that was canceled at short notice due to criminal tax investigations caused the share price of the financial services provider Lang & Schwarz to fall by around a third the day before. In contrast, Deutsche Post, Linde and Merck recorded course records in the Dax. A positive reporting season for the second quarter and higher earnings targets pushed many stock prices higher. But analysts warn that this is unlikely to continue in the second half of the year. The shortage of semiconductors, for example, and expensive intermediate products are likely to weigh on the earnings of German corporations. The volatility on the stock market is likely to increase. The fourth wave of the pandemic is clearly visible.

Growing geopolitical concerns, on the other hand, have so far left the stock markets relatively unaffected, even if, for example, there seems to be less and less of the rather moderate initial statements of the Taliban in Afghanistan. The terrorist attacks at the airport in Kabul on Thursday, with many dead and injured, put a strain on the stock markets, but the Dow Jones itself only lost 0.5 percent on that day. The Dax was hardly changed on Friday. But the United States is expecting further attacks after these suicide attacks. This complicates the ongoing evacuation of those in need of protection and the withdrawal of troops. The American President Joe Biden also announced retaliatory strikes.

At the weekend, the eyes of the financial audiences will initially be primarily on Jackson Hole. In the run-up to the event, there was a lot of discussion about the still ultra-loose monetary policy and the topic of inflation. Some analysts are now hoping for the first signals about the gradual expiry of the multi-billion dollar bond purchase programs that have fueled the bull market for so long. Others rely on the Fed meeting in September. Summer lull looks different. The good news for those who are anxious: Next Friday will not fall on the 13th until May – at least that is certain.

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