The Government suffered a noisy stumble in the PASO, since it lost in more than half of the country, including the strategic province of Buenos Aires, and if the provisional scrutiny is confirmed, alarm lights will be lit especially in the Senate, where the Frente de Everyone could be left without a “quorum of their own.”
This Sunday, in the framework of atypical elections due to the coronavirus pandemic through which the country is passing, the electoral strategy promoted by the ruling party during the proselytizing campaign bit the dust, betting on an extreme polarization with Together for Change ( JxC), and the management of President Alberto Fernández definitely failed the exam after two years of work in the Casa Rosada.
The main political force of the opposition, commanded by former president Mauricio Macri at the national level and by the mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, in the metropolitan area, was imposed this Sunday in the City and in the province of Buenos Aires, in Santa Fe, Córdoba, Mendoza, Jujuy and Corrientes, but also in La Pampa, Entre Ríos, Chaco, Chubut, Misiones, Salta, Tierra del Fuego and the Kirchnerist terroir of Santa Cruz.
Also in San Luis, an alliance of which the PRO was part, although not radicalism, allowed the opposition to win in the Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primaries (PASO), with a view to the general (legislative) elections of the next 14 of November.
A tsunami that shakes the deepest foundations of Kirchnerism
The main blow to the jaw, in any case, the Frente de Todos (FdT) received it in Buenos Aires territory, where at times the vice president and head of that space, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, “carried her shoulder” at times. campaign and placed his son Máximo Kirchner, with a highly combative profile, at the forefront of the electoral strategy.
As Fernández’s image deteriorated in different measures with a view to the PASO, in the same way that his support in surveys on management valuation fell, especially after the hard blow that the scandal caused by the social parties in the Olivos Presidential Estate in full quarantine in 2020, the ruling party was radicalizing its proselytizing discourse and betting on confrontation.
If the objective was, in addition to consolidating its hard core of voters, to prevent the flight of disenchanted people to other electoral offers or to seduce the undecided in the days before the elections, it is clear that the FdT plan failed, so the Government must first assimilate the impact and then rethink its strategy with a view to November.
In this sense, and beyond the progress made by the coronavirus vaccination program in recent weeks, it does not seem that the ruling party has much room to improve its performance in the general elections, for example in the province of Buenos Aires. Aires, if the economic crisis that affects large sectors of the population today does not grant a truce in the very short term.
The “day after”: damage assessment, calculations and projections after the strong slap on the wrist
It will be necessary to see how the Government reacts to this electoral stumbling block – will there be changes in the Cabinet? – and how the coup is absorbed indoors in the ruling coalition, taking into account that the heads of the list both in the City (Leandro Santoro) and in the province of Buenos Aires (Victoria Tolosa Paz), especially, are leaders appointed by President Fernández.
If this result is confirmed, alarm lights will certainly go on in the Senate for the FdT, since it will run a serious risk of losing its “own quorum” due to its defeats in Córdoba, Mendoza, Santa Fe, La Pampa, Corrientes and Chubut: six fewer seats you might have (35 in total, when it takes 37 to formally initiate a session).
Meanwhile, beyond the success that JxC achieved this Sunday, when painting more than half of the country “yellow”, this electoral result should not be interpreted as a blank check from society with a view to November: the so-called ” angry vote “or” punishment vote “towards the Government surely influenced this painting to be produced.
Finally, just as the “paratrooper” of the “anti-politics” Javier Milei surprised locals and strangers with his performance in the Federal Capital, a similar wake-up call supposes for the ruling class and the traditional electoral system the percentage of participation – slightly more than 67 percent of the register-, after a proselytizing campaign full of verbal pyrotechnics and coup attempts and worryingly scarce in terms of concrete proposals. (NA)