After the rise of 5.9% registered in April, which took the accumulated figure to 28% in the first four months, the inflation of food is maintained and the Government is concerned.
Although the Government expects that this month there will be a slowdown and that the general CPI will be closer to 4%, the consultants forecast a higher floor, especially in food and drinkswhich with the data for the first two weeks of the month are already showing an increase of more than 5% compared to the same period last month.
The consultants that survey prices of food detected an increase of 1.2% in the first week of May and more than 2% in the second, so that until now the index of inflation The average of the last four weeks is 5.1%, which rises to 5.4% if the second is compared with the same week in April, according to a recent LCG report.
In this way, inflationary inertia remains very high and the April data released this week may overheat prices even more in the coming days.
“Processed foods will be located as the average of the inflation, but frescoes remain high. Meat is going to play tricks on us again,” they acknowledge from the Ministry of Productive Development. According to the IndecIn April, the kilo of roast rose 5.2% (from $971.19 to $1,022.16); and the rump, buttock, shoulder and common minced meat rose 7.7%, 7.8%, 8.5% and 9.8%, respectively.
For the Government, food prices rise for various reasons: because there is demand, because of a rise in costs and because “there are cross-subsidies.” “As they have very few margins on the products of the Care Prices program, they recompose by increasing more what is outside the official plan,” indicates the official explanation.
The Ministry of Commerce detected shortages in several supermarkets, despite the fact that the companies assure that they are delivering more and more volume. It happens that today the price gap between the products of the program and those that are outside has widened so much that the demand for these items is increasing.
According to EcoGo estimates, although the average variation of the food basket has been slowing down compared to a busy March and April, they project a monthly rise of around 4.7%.
The variations in the second week of May were led by vegetables which, according to the LCG report, rose 6.1%, and by baked goods, cereals and pasta, which rose 3.5%. And when considering the average variation of the last four weeks, the meat category is the one that heads the podium, with an 8.1% increase. In second place are baked goods (6.9%), followed by condiments and other food products (6.8%) and oils (6.3 percent) in fourth place.
For the moment, the expectation that economists have is that food prices will continue to rise, even in the context of an appreciation of the dollar, since, on the one hand, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues and this reduces the supply of grains. and supports prices, and on the other, the Argentine macroeconomy remains weak and inflationary inertia remains very high.