The Ministry of Economy will present the 2022 Budget project in the national Congress on Wednesday and will thus whitewash what will be the direction of the economic policy of the Frente de Todos for the coming months, even amid rumors of a change in the cabinet and the imminent implementation of assistance measures after the electoral setback.
The initiative that brings together the estimates of income and expenses for next year will arrive on the edge of the legal term established by the Financial Administration Law, which stipulates that the Executive Branch has a limit of September 15 to turn that text of law to parliament. .
Despite some versions that the presentation of the budget could be delayed, during this Tuesday the Ministry of Economy ratified on different occasions that they would comply with the traditional times and that it would arrive after Wednesday afternoon to Congress. It is estimated that Martín Guzmán himself, hours later, will rehearse a first defense of the project before the opposition legislators.
The fine numbers of the budget suffer until close to the final stretch from all the sectors that make up the Frente de Todos. Without going any further, in the last hours a public revolt of possible economic assistance measures began, with some that from one of the ruling party tribes requested with greater determination, such as a focused return of the Emergency Family Income (IFE) or similar allocation. or even a basic universal salary.
Despite some versions that the presentation of the budget could be delayed, during this Tuesday the Ministry of Economy ratified on different occasions that they would comply with the traditional times and that it would arrive after Wednesday afternoon at the Congress
Since it lost the PASO in almost the entire country, the Government began a damage control process to sculpt some idea of economic management in the immediate future. How this menu will be integrated is still the subject of debate in the civil service and the Presidency of the Nation. Along with that relaunch of the IFE, it sounded like an option to grant a new bonus to retirees.
In any case, from different official offices they were more cautious and assured that the package is still under analysis and preparation and that there is no determination made. They did affirm that the measures will address issues such as salaries, credits, job training and social security, they explained to Infobae.
In that sense, they listed issues such as zero-rate loans, an improvement in the minimum wage that would be reflected at the end of the month and that would function as a witness for informal workers, social security issues among which there could be a reinforcement of the AUH and, in labor terms, training courses and training with certification.
Some of these measures, they acknowledge in the Executive, were thought ad hoc due to the result of the legislative elections, while another part of that menu was already established on the economic team’s agenda even before the STEP was held.
The economic impact that the package released by the Government this week, which according to speculations in the official corridors, will be announced directly by Alberto Fernández this Thursday is not less than the economic impact. The 2022 Budget – and the update of the fiscal and inflation projections until the end of 2021 that is included – could be affected by an onerous economic package.
For now, if there is no vertebral change in the project, the estimates with which Martín Guzmán’s team in charge of carving the Budget worked would be:
-A growth in activity that is between 3 and 4 percent, that is, a lower figure than was officially expected a few months ago, when an initial number showed an expansion of between 4.5 and 5 percent. hundred.
-A reduction in the imbalance of public accounts in a range of between 3 and 3.5% of GDP, which would imply a cut close to one percentage point in relation to the goal set for this year, of 4.5 percent.
-An inflation that should show a deceleration next year to a figure close to 35 percent per year. In this way, the price increase would “return” to the level -at least the one expected by the Executive Power- of 2020, when it ended at 36.1 percent.
Other details are expected on key economic data for the coming months. A critical issue will be next year -as this was- the path of the tariff and subsidy policy. In 2021, the Ministry of Energy authorized, after the clash between Guzmán and his Undersecretary of Energy Federico Basualdo, single-digit increases for gas and electricity, which forced the subsidy account to increase.
What will be the estimate of the increases for next year, how much funds the Government will allocate for economic subsidies and how much the long-promised tariff segmentation scheme will weigh on the economic team, if it were to be launched at some point, still remains under seven keys. of 2022.
The second budget that Guzmán will present in Congress since he is minister will be framed, in addition to the possible measures with fiscal impact due to the defeat and in the STEP, by the possibilities of a change in the roster of ministers. The claims are more or less public by the wing of the Frente de Todos closest to Cristina Kirchner to accelerate not only economic announcements but also in the civil service.
In that sense, those who were most targeted from minute zero of the electoral defeat were three of those closest to Alberto Fernández: Guzmán, the Chief of Cabinet Santiago Cafiero and the Minister of Productive Development, Matías Kulfas, who this Tuesday braided in a discursive duel with former vice president Amado Boudou.
The objections of Christianity to the current Minister of Economy are not new but they resurfaced after the legislative elections. Basualdo’s failed resignation was one of the central elements of the novel, but there were also more or less angry complaints about certain fiscal discipline from the Treasury in the first months of the year. Until July, for example, it accumulated only 0.7% of the primary deficit, when the budgeted annual goal was around 4.5 percent.
The other factor weighing on the budget tension is the negotiation with the International Monetary Fund. Some of the issues that the income and expenditure law will discuss are at the heart of the technical conversation with the IMF, such as the fiscal target, growth or inflation. The Ministry of Economy assured that the terms of a possible new financial program – which must have parliamentary support – “will be incorporated” ex post to the budget.
Hours before turning that project to Congress, Guzmán will be shown again this Wednesday at noon with Alberto Fernández. It will be in the act of public presentation of the project to promote hydrocarbon production. Also present will be the Secretary of Energy Darío Martínez and governors of oil provinces.
It will be a “Guzmán seal” project – as were others such as money laundering for construction – so it is expected that it will also defend the initiative, which was worked on by direct advisers to the minister and by some of his men at YPF, this Wednesday during the presentation.