Urn mouths and hurried festivities in the province of Buenos Aires

They ran at 6 pm on Election Sunday. In the bunkers of the two main forces they evaluated the last wave of the ballot box mouth. The ballot boxes they are a methodology that, well done, has shown that it can yield very good results. They are based on asking the voter when he leaves to vote for who did it (in English exit poll).

In the two bunkers the results agreed that the Front of All he had won the election in the Province. Axel Kicillof went out to dance with Victoria Tolosa Paz, and the television showed us Cristina Fernández de Kirchner flying down Avenida Córdoba to get to the festivities. A single poll gave a winner to Together for Change, in the sum of the lists of Diego Santilli and Facundo Manes. It was the study carried out by MFG Consultores, which since noon on Sunday was already reporting to Manes’s attorney, Manuel Terradez, that Together I would win by a minimal difference but that would be a triumph. To this information was added a study of quick counting in 3000 polling stations that served as control to the ballot box mouth.

After some discussion, the candidates from Together came out and announced their triumph based on this ballot box mouth. The ballot box mouth I was throwing a 37.3 for Together and 36.3 for All. The end result of Together it was finally 37.99, less than a point of difference. If this had not happened, we Argentines would have stayed with the celebration of the Front of All and the silence of the candidates of Together, in particular Santilli and Manes. The key to MFG consultants’ exit box was to accurately capture the vote in the interior of the Province of Buenos Aires and the difference that made there Together, while other pollsters overestimated the weight of the suburbs.

Facundo Manes and Diego Santilli

This leaves a lesson: we have to take care of the festivities in advance because they can leave you in a fool, and to study well the samples and methodologies with which the projects are projected. ballot box mouth.

Pablo Ava – Professor of the subject Political and Electoral Behavior at the UBA

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