The overwhelming reason why Axel Kicillof is the most affected by the PASO

If in November the decision of the Buenos Aires people is ratified at the polls Axel Kicillof and his cabinet must take advanced classes in dialogue and negotiation. Two pending issues of the current administration that is characterized by not negotiating or building bridges with the opposition both in the legislature and with the municipalities that are not of their political color. The situation is so complex that the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies would be at stake.

The founder of the movement, which they claim to represent, said: “The only truth is reality.” And the concrete thing is that with this result the governor would completely lose control of the Legislature. Even the presidency of the Buenos Aires Chamber of Deputies is at stake, today in the hands of The field, where from minute zero of his administration he had a majority and quorum that gave him allied blocks. The same did not happen in the Upper House where the opposition has, until December 10, 26 of the 46 seats. In that case the goal of Kicillof it was to have an upper house of its own. The strategy was focused on obtaining at least three seats to tie up and try to add the money changers on the run.

On Sunday the gunpowder got wet in the cannons of the governorate

The plan drawn up by the marshals of the Buenos Aires governorate was clear, to change the relationship of forces in the Senate where Together for Change has a large majority. The guns were aimed at three of the four electoral sections, where the minimum objective was to recover a senator in each of those territories: The First Section (North of the suburbs) 8 seats in dispute; Fourth Section (Northwest of the Province) 7 places in the Upper House and the Seventh Section (Center of the Buenos Aires territory) at stake 3 senators. The Fifth Section with 5 seats at stake -always eluding Peronism- had been put aside.

Sunday was a very hard blow to the aspirations of Kicillof, with the defeat of Peronism in key districts where senators are elected. If the results of the PASO are maintained, in the November general elections, the opposition would hold an election similar to that of 2017 and would maintain the majority in the Senate. At most of the 26 legislators would lose one.

The unexpected victory (for the governor’s marshals) of Together in the First Section would leave things as they are, that is, the opposition maintains its 5 senators and the ruling party keeps the remaining 3.

In the Fourth, if the same figures remain, the ruling party could win a senator. Of the 7 at stake, 4 would remain for Juntos and 3 for El Frente de Todos (the current composition is 5 from the opposition and 2 from the ruling party).

La Quinta would remain with the same conformation, that is, 3 senators for Together and 2 for the Front of All.

The Buenos Aires Legislature.

In the seventh, things would be more complicated for Kicillof, The Front of All I did not reach 33.33% of the votes and if these numbers were maintained, the 3 Senate seats in dispute would again be in the hands of Juntos.

In the Buenos Aires Lower House, things are also complicated for Kicillof, if the difference of 5 points remains in the generals of November, the Front of All would lose the majority and the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies of the Province of Buenos Aires, held by The field.

The Front of AllOf the current 45 deputies, he would lose two. In other words, he would lose the majority and the presidency of the Lower House.

Together of the current 38 deputies, it would have 45, which leaves it one to have their own quorum, and remaining with the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies of the Province of Buenos Aires.

And the Left, third force in the PASO, would enter 2 deputies for the Third Electoral Section.

It only remains to know what role the two mini-blocks of one deputy each will play, until Sunday allied to the ruling party.

If the difference of 5 points remains in the November elections, where “the beans” are at stake, Kicillof and his ministers must take a course in good manners in order to govern the remaining two years in the Province of Buenos Aires.

The seats at stake in the Legislature.

In the general elections of November, 69 seats in the Legislature of the Province of Buenos Aires. Of the same 23 correspond to the Senate and 46 belong to Deputies, distributed in the complex chess board that are the Electoral Sections of the Province of Buenos Aires.

In the Buenos Aires Senate, the 23 seats in dispute are distributed as follows:

First Electoral Section, covers 24 municipalities in the northern suburbs, are the 8 seats that are renewed.

Fourth Electoral Section, covers 19 municipalities in the northwest, renews 7 seats.

Fifth Electoral Section, covers 27 parties in the eastern zone, renews 5 seats.

Seventh Electoral Section, is represented by 8 municipalities in the center of the Province of Buenos Aires, renews 3 senators

In the Chamber of Deputies of the Province of Buenos Aires, 46 seats are at stake, distributed in the following Electoral Sections:

Second Electoral Section, represents 15 municipalities in the north of the province, renews 11 deputies

Third Electoral Section, the one with the largest number of voters distributed in 19 municipalities in the south of Greater Buenos Aires, renews 18 seats in the lower house

Sixth Electoral Section, represented in 27 municipalities in the southwest of the province, renews 11 deputies.

Eighth Electoral Section or Capital Region, represented only by the City of La Plata, renews 6 deputies.

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