The new BCRA report raises Argentina’s economic growth projections

The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) published the results of the Market Expectations Survey (REM), a report that compiles the estimates of various economic consulting firms in relation to the different variables that affect the country. In the September issue, the gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to grow 7.6% in real terms.

In the report, in which 26 consulting firms and local research centers, 14 financial entities from Argentina and 2 foreign analysts participated, it is noted that the estimates rise 0.4% compared to the previous month. Anyway, the increase it would not be enough to cushion the fall of 9.9% year-on-year that was registered in 2020.

The ranking of the 10 best forecasters suggests an increase in GDP for 2021 on average of 7.8%. Regarding the seasonally adjusted quarterly variation of GDP, the estimate for the third quarter of the year was corrected upwards with an estimated rise of 1.7%, which was 0.4% higher in relation to the previous survey.

In turn, the BCRA details that the estimate of increase corresponding to the fourth quarter of the year, it fell slightly by 0.1% from 0.6% to 0.5%. Meanwhile, REM participants suggest a growth of 0.4% for the first quarter of next year.

On the other hand, the REM for September also projects the evolution of the inflation. Along these lines, analysts indicate that the price increase will reach 48.2% year-on-year by the end of 2021. Those who best predict foresee an increase of 48.6%.


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