After adding four consecutive quarters to the rise, since its worst fall in the middle of last year, between July and September, the Gross domestic product (START) had a quarterly decline of 0.4%.
The factors that affected the growth of the economy were: the deterioration in conditions on the Covid-19, restrictions on the supply of goods, greater pressure on prices and adverse weather conditions.
Analysts Banorte Financial Group they highlighted that there was a certain impulse of greater demand, “both from abroad and on the domestic front.”
For its part, Financial Group Bx + He considered that, despite the decline, they foresee improvements in the last quarter of the year.
In addition to the results of the monthly drop in economic activity in September, they estimate that, if vaccination continues to advance and there is no rebound in infections, the normalization of activity, social mobility and spending patterns will boost the sector tertiary.
However, they warned, there is a risk of a fourth wave of infections and high inflation would limit the expansion of private consumption.
Likewise, the bottlenecks in production that could persist until mid-2022 and the fragility in the recovery of gross fixed investment could be other limitations.
So much Grupo Financiero Bx +, Banorte and Monex, maintain a forecast so that, by the end of 2021, the START is between 5.7% and 5.8%; while for 2022, they project a growth between 2.3% and 3.0%.
Productive activity shows signs of weakness
Inegi also announced that in September economic activity had a monthly drop of 0.4%, spinning down two consecutive months and six so far this year.
“With this, it shows a clear downward trend in 2021,” said the president of the National Institute of Statistic and Geography (Inegi), Julio Santaella Castell.
The monthly decline in Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), corresponding to the ninth month of the year, was the result of drops of 1.4% in primary and secondary activities, and 0.3% in tertiary activities.
When comparing each of the sectors, the IGAE showed that primary activities, which refer to the exploitation of natural resources (agriculture), add two months to the decline and whose most recent decline was 1.4%. In its year-on-year comparison, a 1.7% drop was also observed.
Financial Group Bx + He pointed out that, despite the expansion of the agricultural sector, in its exports, the manufacture of food and beverages and in food preparation services, it accelerated its declines.