Rodríguez Larreta emerges as the winner after the PASO

With a surprising triumph in the province of Buenos Aires and a difference greater than expected in the City, the head of the Buenos Aires Government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, emerges as the great winner of the primary elections.

Diego Santilli and María Eugenia Vidal – their two leading candidates – made very good elections in their respective districts, and thus gave Rodríguez Larreta air in his goal of being a presidential candidate for the opposition in 2023.

To this was added that the list sponsored by former president Mauricio Macri – his possible internal rival – lost in Córdoba, where Luis Juez prevailed over Mario Negri.

As the great losers in these elections appear President Alberto Fernández and his vice president, Cristina Kirchner, who even lost in one of its bastions, the province of Santa Cruz, and their candidates had lower performances than expected in the strategic Buenos Aires suburbs.

The candidates imposed by the president, Victoria Tolosa Paz in the province and Leandro Santoro in the city, received fewer votes than expected in the PASO.

The Government obtained a result much lower than that predicted in the province of Buenos Aires, and was defeated in most of the districts, which opens a complicated panorama for the conformation of Congress as of December, when it would lose several seats.

Another weak role was played in this election by former Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo, who was below 4% and a comfortable fifth place, relegated by the left and liberalism in the province of Buenos Aires.

On the other hand, the libertarian Javier Milei in Ciudad made a very good choice and surpassed 11% of the votes, coming in third place and securing a seat in November if these results were confirmed.

In Córdoba, the figure of Luis Juez emerges as an opposition reference, while in Santa Fe Governor Omar Perotti managed to triumph in the internal Peronism over Agustín Rossi.

In Mendoza, meanwhile, Alfredo Cornejo and Julio Cobos clearly triumphed as candidates for senator and national deputy, and became other winners of the day.

Government candidates lost in 18 provinces: Buenos Aires, Federal Capital, Chaco, Chubut, Corrientes, Córdoba, Entre Ríos, Jujuy, La Pampa, Mendoza, Misiones, Neuquén, Río Negro, Salta, Santa Cruz, Santa Fe, San Luis and Tierra del Fuego.

Due to political importance and demographic density, the setback in the province of Buenos Aires generated a high impact.

The vast territory that in 2019 had sustained the presidential victory of Alberto Fernández turned around and Kirchnerism lost in seven of the eight electoral sections.

In the only one that won, the third (Avellaneda, Quilmes and La Matanza, among others) won by only 8 points, when two years ago in those games he had triumphed by more than 30.

If these numbers are repeated in the general elections in November, the ruling party would lose the quorum in the Senate and would be forced to negotiate its agenda with the opposition in Deputies.

The defeat also raises several questions about the future of the national government, where Kirchnerism had been asking for changes in the Cabinet and the president hoped to plebiscite his management in the PASO, which finally did not happen.

And there is expectation about how the markets will receive this result, which had been speculating with a high parity result, which would force the government to reverse some of its policies of strong state intervention, which are frowned upon by the private sector. (NA)

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