Political scenario: who should be thanked for the works for Bahia

Maximiliano Allica / [email protected]

In recent months, a strong discussion has accelerated about who should be credited with the merits of the main works carried out in Bahía Blanca. The problem arises because the mayor and his officials tend to lead and disseminate events highlighting investments in infrastructure, many of them financed by the national or provincial treasuries, which provokes reactions in the opposition.

From the Frente de Todos they point out that the mayor Héctor Gay directly steals the merits, which should fall to the benefit of Peronism. In Together for Change they answer that many of the works that arrive in the city are managed from here, they do not come by parachute, and therefore there are merits of the municipal authorities for the intervention before the superior governments.

It is a debate that comes from last year, when Federico Susbielles advanced on his social networks a series of works that Minister Gabriel Katopodis would bring. In Alsina 65, they interpreted that the president of the Port wanted the communal chief first, who should be the formal one in charge of making the announcements.

Since then, these crosses about who brings what and how have been repeated many times. The last, with the signing of an agreement for 162 homes in the Luz y Fuerza neighborhood, broadcast on municipal channels with a photo of Gay.

Susbielles roared on Twitter: “The reactivation of the construction of the Sindicato de Luz y Fuerza neighborhood, which the Macri government paralyzed between 2015 and 2019, is excellent news for Bahia.” He continued: “We once again have a government committed to the needs of its people, and working on a crucial aspect for the people of Bahia, such as access to housing and habitat. A situation that the lack of municipal public policies had closed in recent years. 6 years”.

And he concluded: “Thank you, Minister (of Habitat) Jorge Ferraresi and President Alberto Fernández for complying with Bahia. How important it is that the resources be administered with equity. Unfortunately, the meanness of the Cambiemos government continues to hide the numerous investments of the national and provincial government.” .

Unlike other opportunities, no one at Together for Change answered him.

The debate on the merits in the works has its complexities. The first thing to highlight is that no municipal budget, in this government, the previous ones or the next ones, would have the resources to finance a significant package of works. Yes or yes, our city requires funds from the Nation and Province. What is happening at the moment, which opens the way to this discussion, is that it is the first time in many years that the local government is not aligned with those above.

The Peronist administrations of Rodolfo Lopes, Cristian Breitenstein and Gustavo Bevilacqua (except in the last section, when it split from Kirchnerism) were a correlate of the party that also commanded the Interior and Casa Rosada. And Gay’s first turn coincided with Vidal and Macri. Since the time of Jaime Linares, this situation of a decoupled Municipality did not exist.

When all the colors are online as happened between 2003 and 2019, nobody claims for the authorship of the investments. It is implied that it is a team effort. Now that changed. So who to hang the medals of the works, call it the Ring Road, houses in Luz y Fuerza or sewers in different sectors, made with money that travels from the capitals?

There are probably shared virtues. It is not even a secret that there is usually collaboration of local Peronist leaders to smooth contacts between the commune and different ministries. Maybe they need to adjust the communication details, period.

That said, in the same way that applause on both sides of the crack is intended for the investments made, criticism should also be cast for all that is lacking, which is always much more. The case of water is emblematic. Whose main responsibility is it? The mayor because he must manage before the Province or the governor because it is a matter clearly of Buenos Aires competence? Whoever wants to appear in the next ribbon cuts in the face of so much bidding work, to take charge of the insults of the thousands of Bahia residents who will be left without service this summer.

Politics in general has a profound flaw. Unlike the vast majority of jobs, where people do what they have to do simply because it corresponds to them, the leadership expects homage: if it paves a street, if it has new lighting, if it repairs a route detonated by the passage of time, if you open a faucet.

By now everyone should understand that making investments using public funds, constituted by the payment of taxes, does not have any extraordinary concession. It is their job, for that they ask for the vote and receive a salary. There is nothing to thank anyone for.

Much less in a country where all economic and social indicators are at extremely poor levels, starting with inflation and its beloved daughter, poverty. Problems that, of course, are not of municipal concern.

Gisela Ghigliani (Front of All)

Elections: how many votes do Peronists and libertarians need

Any discussion these days will be tinged with an electoral climate. Each space has its challenges and, once the first diagnosis of the definitive scrutiny has been consolidated, the calculator analyzes in hand continue.

It is convenient to review that if the results of the STEP had been the final ones, in Bahía Blanca only three ballots would enter the distribution of councilors: Together they would obtain 7 seats, the Frente de Todos would remain with 3 and Avanza Libertad would reach 2.

And here the accounts begin. To enter at least one councilor, 8.33% of the votes are needed in the next general elections. This number arises from dividing 100% of the positive votes by 12, which is the number of seats at stake.

Now, how many votes does it take this year to access that percentage? From there, how many does it take to win more seats?

In 2019, to get a seat on the Deliberative Council, a base of 15,513 votes was required, equivalent to 8.33%; in 2017 the figure was 15,211; in 2015, 14,676; and, in 2013, 14,378. The exact number this year will depend on the number of votes cast on November 14, so there is still no certainty. But you can appeal to the reference of the previous elections. Assuming an average of the last four as a hypothesis, this year 15,000 votes will be needed to secure at least one seat. Therefore, it will take 30 thousand to guarantee a minimum of 2; 45 thousand for 3, and so on.

With that horizon, how does each of the current competitors stand? In the first place, it is worth remembering that the number of voters always increases between the primaries and the general ones. Given that 170,287 Bahia citizens voted on September 12, representing 68.76% of the electoral roll, one possibility is that turnout will rise to 75% (it is also a reference to previous elections). Following this projection, there will be about 185 thousand envelopes at the polls.

Avanza Libertad, who presented two lists of councilors in the PASO, added 13,493 between them. That is, you would need to add about 1,500 to reach 15 thousand and be part of the group that passes 8.33%. If you get 8.32% or less, you are out of everything. Can you come up with that number? It will depend on the performance of its head of the national list, José Luis Espert, to push up the local ballot for Martín Barrionuevo and Valeria Rodríguez.

The Frente de Todos, with its 33,393 votes from the primaries, would be achieving just 2 seats by direct votes plus 1 by the quotient system. According to this example, in order for it to rise from those 3 seats to 4, it needs to rise above 45 thousand votes, about 12 thousand more, which would guarantee a floor of 3 councilors by direct votes plus 1 by quotients.

Thus, the FdT should take almost all the votes that are added in the general elections or “steal” a good amount from the other Peronist options, led at the local level by the Randazzista Oscar Abraham and the canillita Luciano Martos. Between them they reached more than 8 thousand adhesions in the primaries. Also, convince part of those who voted blank in September (11,739). Not easy.

Regarding Together, the calculation is simpler. By cutting up with figures close to 50% (74,193 votes in the primaries) and speculating that it has significant growth between PASO and generals as it already happened in 2015, 2017 and 2019, it will most likely obtain 7 seats, 5 or 6 per floor of votes and the rest by quotients.

A maximum option for the ruling party would be that the libertarians do not reach 8.33% and those 2 remaining seats also go to Together, because the winner keeps everything that “is left over.” In that case, it would total 9 new councilors and its block would rise to 16 members, two-thirds of the body, deepening its absolute majority.

Finally, there is another space that will try to give the dispute, the Left Front, led by the historic Néstor Conte. In the PASO, his ballot and that of his internal opponents added 9,795 votes. They should have a very great impulse to reach 15 thousand that will put them at the gates of Sarmiento 12. They trust that the idea will spread that the third force nationwide in September was the left and that will motivate more voters to give them the endorsement, under the notion that it is the strongest proposal outside the crack.

Since 2011, when the primary system was established, the usual thing was that in the general elections the votes were concentrated in those who obtained the first two places in the PASO, to the detriment of the third and fourth, who did not grow or did so weakly. In a month it will be known if the concept is repeated.

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