Political scenario: a STEP that began to shape the next

Maximiliano Allica / [email protected]

First data of these STEP: radicalism in Bahia is more alive than it seemed. Lorenzo Natali won the primary to Fernando Compagnoni in the Sixth Section because in Bahía Blanca, the city with the most electoral weight in the region, the difference in favor of the yellows was meager. With the balance of the majority of the districts in the area, the former radio and TV host ended up prevailing in the internal vote by 102,779 votes to 88,837.

In Alsina 65, they projected a more favorable result in Bahia territory for Compagnoni, which would propel him to global victory. However, the result here was 39,819 votes for “Compa” compared to 36,225 for Lorenzo, whose list received support especially in the neighborhoods, which is a sign that radicalism retains the capacity for mobilization and arrival, even when in the Previously, there was a lot of talk about the unbeatable structure of the Pro.

Another number to highlight. In Bahia, Diego Santilli got 38,923 votes while Facundo Manes was on his heels with 38,152, almost a technical draw. To which it must be added that Manes got almost 2,000 more votes than Lorenzo, which shows that the traction on this ballot came from above. Conversely, “Colo” got almost a thousand fewer adhesions than Compagnoni.

The only internal between Pro and UCR had occurred in 2015 and, although it was another context, it is still the last reference data. That year the yellows led by Héctor Gay crushed the white berets led by Roberto Ursino.

A reading at the national level, after Sunday, is that Juntos is no longer a coalition with an absolutely dominant party, the Pro, because the election of Manes was not bad considering that it was put together in a very few weeks. The UCR sector that wants to compete in primaries again in 2023 feels that it is latent, despite the fact that the Rodríguez Larreta project continues to be a favorite within the alliance.

Taking this approach to the local, these results begin to outline the race for the succession of Gay. The mayor knows, because he said it publicly, that it makes sense to think of a Bahian primary in 2023 between the Pro, the UCR and the Civic Coalition.

Adrián Jouglard’s STEP numbers put him ahead on the list of yellow hopefuls, as his likely role as President of the Deliberative Council will allow him to maintain a high level of exposure. Of course there are other applicants, such as Pablo Romera or Tomás Marisco, but the current Secretary of the Government has just successfully passed his first electoral test and that is no small feat. Except, of course, that Senator Nidia Moirano wants the role. There it will be difficult to argue.

Among the “lilitos” it is not a secret that the Buenos Aires senator Andrés de Leo is listed in the race, so it only remains to solve the radical competitor. One option would be the Undersecretary of Security Emiliano Alvarez Porte, another a historical one like Juan Pedro Tunessi and it would not be necessary to rule out someone from the “hospital group”, perhaps Elisa Quartucci.

But there is one more name, which inevitably arises. This is Martín Salaberry, a “recovered” radical who was one of the most active in supporting Lorenzo and Manes, to the point that he was on the neuroscientist’s list of national deputies. Salaberry is among those who believe that the radicals closest to the municipal government did not put the body as they should in this primary.

Owner of a rare cunning among Bahia leaders, as recognized by his own adversaries, the former councilman not only shows the will to compete for the quartermaster but also has a pending account with the Gay-Moirano-Nardelli triad, with whom he worked between 2013 and 2015 within Denarvaismo until they were reconverted into Cambiemos and prevented him from competing for communal leadership. That distaste, which was very acute, is preserved.

An immense challenge will be, for any radical, to column the rest. The most skillful will be the one who gets his nomination to suit the greatest number of leaders. Or they could settle everything in a party intern. There is time for that. But a Jouglard – De Leo – Salaberry grid is a reasonable projection seen from today.

As for the immediate effect of the Pro-UCR primary in the area, those who have a key to the Donado committee will ask the yellow leadership to join a table to participate in the main local and regional decisions. They do not intend to dispute the leadership now, which they recognize Gay and company, but they do demand more prominence. For now, they need to hold the bridges for November to ratify the forcefulness with which the coalition dispatched the Frente de Todos in Bahia and La Sexta.

One detail is that there was no Lorenzo-Compagnoni photo, the result being known. As it was revealed, just an “organizational misintelligence.” The joint images will arrive, even from the old radio companions Natali and Gay, whose embrace for the cameras also continues to be desired.

This post STEP panorama, for the local Pro, has two faces. On the one hand, they are satisfied with the collapse of Kirchnerism. On the other hand, they look askance at the radicals, although the more pragmatic wing believes that these primaries demonstrated that, if the struggle maintains certain codes, the competition attracts votes. Ergo, better if there is a good national STEP in 2023, which is replicated locally.

In a scenario of total competition in the executives, the chances in Bahia will increase for whoever has the national candidate that attracts the most. Will someone better than Larreta appear? Time to time.

Another unavoidable fact of these primaries is the beating of Juntos on the Frente de Todos in the local section of the ballot, 47.7% to 21.9%. The mitigating factor they are looking for in Bahia’s Peronism-Kirchnerism is the map of the Province, almost all of it painted yellow. The concept is “we lost ugly, but it is the context, the carry-over effect.”

It is clear that the national FdT will have to swerve to see if it reverses the trend. The big question is whether they give the helm to Cristina, an expert in going on the offensive when she is most cornered, or are they still waiting for Alberto to “order what he has to order”, as the vice president claimed after the scandal of the photo in Olivos.

There is not much time, just two months. Likewise, it must always be remembered that Kirchnerism lost the last three legislative sessions (2009, 2013 and 2017) and then rose. What will happen this time is a beautiful excuse for the classic discussion of whether history is cyclical or never repeats itself.

Returning to Bahia, with Sunday’s results the Frente de Todos would only win 3 seats out of the 6 it puts into play. The first to be left out is the municipal union member Miguel Agüero. For the rebound of the Peronist ballot, they would need, among other things, strong support at the polls from the union movement. Today, the labor organizations are divided, with losers and winners in the distribution of candidacies. As the vote is secret, it will never be known for whom the wounded of that closing of lists play, with the Truckers in the lead.

During these hours, the shipowners carefully analyze the vote in each neighborhood, each table, to compare with previous shifts and see where there is a reaction capacity to put resources there. These first days we should not expect big movements, but as the general draws near they will go out to fight, with whatever weapons they have. The north is that these 3 seats become 4, for which they should exceed 25% of the votes.

A figure that circulated among those who play at the expense of local leadership is the breakdown of Bahian votes in each section of the ballot. According to what has been scrutinized so far, Victoria Tolosa Paz was the lowest with 32,807, Alejandro Dichiara achieved the maximum of the space with 33,093 and Gisela Ghigliani achieved 32,929.

Read, the alleged piantavotos Dichiara – still upset because he was not invited to the event in Villa Miter when Tolosa Paz came – was slightly above. However, the most common is that the cuts are given at the ends and not in the middle ballot, with which the data should not be exaggerated. In addition, these even numbers show that almost everyone who elected FdT cast a full ballot.

It is worth noting that in previous elections the local Peronist candidates had surpassed the national ones. He spent the last time with Federico Susbielles, who was 5 points above Alberto and 6 points above Kicillof. In this case, the Bahia rejection of the Front was even.

If the current results were final, 7 members of Juntos would enter the Deliberative Council (whose block would rise from 12 to 14 seats), 3 of Todos (they would drop from 11 to 8) and 2 of Avanza Libertad, led by the Espertian Valeria Rodríguez.

The libertarians achieved 8.75%. To secure at least one councilor, in the general elections they need a floor of 8.33% of the total votes. It is a possible objective, especially assuming that the high absenteeism of these primaries could imply that those who join to vote in November reject equally both sides of the rift.

As an imminent goal, they have to show that winners and losers in internal (Rodríguez defeated Martín Barrionuevo) are capable of kicking for the same side. Political construction is more complex than taking advantage of the tailwind brought by a timely figure like Espert.

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