Why Javier Milei could win the 2023 presidential elections

Paola Zubán is the director of the consulting firm Zubán Córdoba, which carried out a poll on the electoral climate in Argentina. He spoke in MDZ Radio about some details of the result that the measurement yielded and referred particularly to the growth of the figure of the leader of La Libertad Avanza, Javier Milei, and its positioning towards 2023 presidential election.

According to the interviewee, the lack of trust in traditional politics produces certain phenomena, such as the emergence of other non-traditional political spaces. In Argentina, in recent years we have been used to bicollisionality, that is, to the pendulum movement between two coalitions: Together for Change and the Front for All. But now other forces are making their appearance, leaving a more divided electoral space.

This poll It was done through an online platform. It has a sample of 2,000 cases, which is representative of the total Argentine population, has a confidence level of 95%, and a margin of error of approximately 2.79%.

According to the survey, in 2023 28.2% of surveyed they would vote for Together for Change; 23.9% to the Front of All and 20.6% to Liberals/Libertarians, space of who today Javier Milei It is a leader. “The margin of error of the poll It can make you think that any of the 3 political sectors can change the order, anyone can be first, second or third, “the interviewee began explaining on the After Office program.

Based on this, Zubán analyzed the volatility that voters have today, many without a party entity as we understood it years ago. In addition, he maintained that the current electorate is very young, almost 43% of the electoral roll of the next choice he will be between 16 and 30 years old, “so he is a voter who was born and grew up in a highly digitized system, heavily influenced by the information circulating on social networks and who does not have a very strong party identity. Today they vote for one option and tomorrow to another, without prejudice”.

So, “just as the electoral scenario is shaping up today, it can change in a very short time, especially in the young segment, which is the one that is going to determine in some way the result of the next presidential election. A segment that suffers the most from a lack of perspective on the future,” he continued.

Finally, the interviewee said that this portion of young voters has been little studied, they feel poorly understood by the traditional political class and also “they are feeling very alone and very little represented.”

All those reasons are those that Zubán attributes to the emergence of new spaces, for example the libertarians, with Javier Milei at the head, who “has an aesthetic, without being pejorative, because I am not referring to the hairstyle of Miley -he clarified-, but to his angry pose against the political system. His anti-establishment stance is what is very attractive today to these new generations who feel let down and underrepresented,” she concluded.

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