There are complex contexts, but poor management helps make them even worse. It’s the thing with management. Energy in Argentina and that has generated a bomb that is feared in the Nation and the province and that requires extreme expertise to deactivate. They believe that the “sincerity” of rates is necessary due to the gap in real prices, the growing volume of subsidies that impacts the accounts and the discouragement of investment that exists in the midst of an international context plagued by uncertainty due to energy problems. But that combo is applied in Argentina, where inflation is out of control and production problems are more so. The staggered increases that are expected to be carried out to partially reduce the cost of energy are born with basic problems and inherit a poorly executed matrix.
The sudden rise in diesel and the increase in service rates (with a huge degree of uncertainty) may put pressure on other prices, including other regulated ones, such as passenger transport. In May, for example, the tweaks to public services already weighed on inflation. According to him INDEC, regulated prices rose 5.2% due to rises in prepaid, electricity (in the provinces) and fuels. Well, Argentina moves with diesel and to the scarcity now is added the untimely rise that will increase freight rates and the cost of the kilometer traveled by public transport, to name two key axes.
About how the tariff segmentation will impact users, everything is in doubt in governments and companies. But the impact will be felt: according to calculations in mendoza, users who have a social rate will receive a rise of about 42%. Other users with a better economic situation could triple what they pay. “Not even the national government knows how it is going to be implemented,” they say in the local Executive. In the case of gas, a service that depends clearly on the Nation, the increase would be similar.
Although the increases are by national provision, political costs are “federalized”. If transport values skyrocket, each province must decide how to cover it. In mendoza the tension is greater because much of the cost comes from the provincial budget. In July the price of the ticket increases, but the equation will continue to be complex. It was already planned to spend close to 20 billion pesos to subsidize the ticket and with the cost of diesel and the parity, the figure can grow even more. the doubt of Rodolfo Suarez, as it happens to the rest of the governors, is whether or not it transfers more than that cost to the users, just in the most sensitive service for the street. The Nation rests: transportation in the AMBA is hyper-subsidized and the provinces are marginalized.
In the electricity rate, the political equation is similar. mendoza It has already applied the increases corresponding to its “part” (the Distribution Added Value) and also another part of the national increase. The removal of subsidies will have another strong impact when it is executed.
It is not the first time that the Government tries to segment the rates. During the management of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner it was tried to do, but in a culpable and badly executed way. There was a voluntary registration that failed and the fear of protests in the core of power and votes (the City of Buenos Aires and the AMBA) prevented an intelligent application. Now the idea returns, after months of internal debate. Although the State has a huge database from the ANSES, the AFIP, the provinces and other sources, the application will depend on what the users declare. It is also not clear how. “No one knows what will happen to those who do not sign up or who are rejected to receive subsidies. The delay is great and if it is transferred, the rate can triple,” say the specialists.