Elections 2022: the polls were right about close elections – Elections 2022

However, the difference between Petro’s result, which was 50.44 percent, and Rodolfo Hernández’s was 3.13 percentage points, a value that is in line with the margin of error of most of the polls carried out. .

(Also: Petro’s messages in his first speech as president-elect)

For its part, the firm’s survey Yanhaas gave the candidate of the Historical Pact as the winner with a greater difference, 45 percent against 35 percent for Hernández, that is, a distance of 10 percentage points and a margin of error of 3 percent.

(You may be interested in: What Petro’s victory means for the mayoral elections in Bogotá)

According to César Caballero, director of the firm Cifras yconcepts, based on the fact that surveys do not predict the future, but rather mark an opinion trend that can vary due to different factors, all the polls showed that the second round was going to be very close, and the difference was not going to be that great.

The expert explains that the result of the voting showed that there was indeed a difference of 700,000 votes, a number that was large enough to clear up any doubt, but it is still small in percentage terms and close to the margin of error.

In the case of the Yanhaas poll, whose margin was 3 percent, Caballero explained that although it had larger differences with respect to the final result of the vote, this is explained because at the time of data collection there was a significant percentage of undecided that weighed on the responses and in sampling.

In general terms, the second round of elections took place normally throughout the country.


Santiago Saldarriaga. TIME

And he added that, within that margin of error, a political fact of the election that affected the result had to do with the fact that not all the voters who supported Rodolfo Hernández and Federico Gutiérrez in the first round went to support him to the same extent in the second round.

(Also read: Gustavo Petro: when does the new president of Colombia 2022 take office?)

Meanwhile, in the survey Guarumo and Ecoanalítica, whose margin of error was 2.5 percent, gave Hernández the winner with 48.2 percent compared to 45.6 percent of Petro, for a difference of just 1.7 percentage points. And in Invamer’s, the gap was just 1 percentage point, also in favor of Hernández, who scored 48.2 percent in the poll.

In other words, there were more than 1.2 million additional people voting between the first and second rounds.

(We recommend you read: Venezuela asks Gustavo Petro to work to restore relations)

“The result shows that in Colombia the vote is a legitimate instrument that serves to change and improve public policies, and also showed that violent people have no place in the country,” added Caballero.

As soon as to the blank vote, which before the voting appeared as one of the factors that could make the difference under a tight and hard-fought scenarioonce 100 percent of the tables enabled this Sunday were informed, the result of this option was lower than the forecasts of the surveys, but with differences also sheltered by the margins of error of these.

(Also: The Prosecutor’s response to Petro on the release of young prisoners)

In effect, there were 501,987 blank votes, for 2.24 percent of the total, a figure that compares with the 3 percent predicted by the National Consulting Center survey; with the 5.3 percent that it marked in the Guarumo and Ecoanalítica survey and the 4.7 percent predicted at the time by the Invamer survey.

In the case of Yanhaas poll, the difference was marked because in the results of this firm the blank vote option registered 13 percent.

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