Lula remains in the lead in the race for the Planalto and Bolsonaro remains isolated, research indicates

An Ipespe survey commissioned by XP Investimentos and released this Friday (14) shows that former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) continues to lead the first round of the electoral dispute for the presidency in 2022, with 44% of wishes.

The PT appears with an advantage of 20 percentage points over the second place, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), with 24%, the same indexes of the survey carried out in December.

Then come former judge Sergio Moro (Podemos), with 9%, and former governor Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 7%. As the margin of error is 3.2 percentage points, the two are technically tied.

The governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), has 2%; Senator Simone Tebet (MDB), Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD), and Luiz Felipe D’Ávila (Novo) have 1% each. White, null, none of the options and would not vote add up to 6%; and do not know or did not respond, 7%.

Photo: Marcelo Chello/CJPress/Folhapress.

The survey interviewed 1,000 people, aged 16 and over, between January 10 and 12 from all regions of the country. The interviews were by telephone. The confidence index, according to the institute, is 95.5%.

The survey was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-09080/2022. The percentages that do not total 100% are due to rounding or multiple answer alternatives, according to Ipespe.

The institute researched a second scenario for the first round, with Senator Alessandro Vieira (Citizenship) and without Moro. In an interview with Veja magazine, published this Friday, the former Minister of Justice of the Bolsonaro government said that he does not intend to give up his candidacy.

In the scenario without Moro, Lula maintains 44% of the voting intentions, and Bolsonaro oscillates up one point, getting 25%. In the sequence appear Ciro, who adds 9%, Doria, with 3%, Tebet, now with 2%, Pacheco, Vieira and D’Ávila, who have 1% each.

White, null, none of the options and would not vote add up to 11%; and do not know or did not respond, 5%.

According to the survey, Lula wins all the candidates in an eventual second round. In the tested scenarios, the PT has an advantage of at least 19 percentage points – he wins by 56% to 31% against Bolsonaro, 51% to 32% against Moro, 51% to 25% against Ciro, and by 53% to 20 % against Doria.

Bolsonaro’s name was also tested against Ciro, Doria and Moro. The three appear ahead of the current chief executive – the pedestrian has 43% to 34%, the governor of São Paulo wins by 42% to 35%, and Bolsonaro’s former minister beats the president by 36% to 29%.

The institute conducts election polls financed by XP Investimentos. During the 2018 presidential elections, there were at least two. In 2022, it published the first survey on January 14.

XP stopped signing its name in the survey as of September 2021.

Leave a Comment