The Ministry of Economy confirmed in the last hours that will present the Budget 2022 bill to Congress this Wednesday, which would include as central estimates a growth of the economy that will be around 3 and 4%, a deficit level of between 3 and 3.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and an inflation close to 35%, as Infobae was able to reconstruct according to official sources.
The economic team is still working on closing the data. The Palacio de Hacienda has a date until this Wednesday to raise the initiative to parliament, as established by the Financial Administration Law. From the Ministry of Economy they ratified that “They are working under the expected deadlines” and that the income and expenses project for next year will enter Congress tomorrow and that it would be defended this Thursday by Martín Guzmán.
The text of the law will include the main macroeconomic variables of 2022, among which are projections of inflation, exchange rate, variation of GDP and level of fiscal deficit, among others. Some of these numbers are especially important, since they are part of the ongoing conversations with the International Monetary Fund, so the fine figure will end up depending on the resolution of that negotiating table.
Minister Guzmán, however, worked with some preliminary ranges of action. According to what this medium was able to know, the economic team estimates a growth in activity that is between 3 and 4 percent, that is, a lower figure than was officially expected a few months ago, when an initial number it accounted for an expansion of between 4.5 and 5 percent.
Regarding the path of fiscal deficit, the economic team expects to reduce the imbalance of public accounts in a range of between 3 and 3.5% of GDP, which would imply a cut close to one percentage point in relation to the goal set for this year, of 4.5 percent.
With that arc of between 3 and 3.5% of GDP of the expected primary deficit, the margin for “Overcompliance” This year’s goal, something most private sector analysts expected after the fiscal performance of the first part of the year, would be lower.
In the first seven months of the year, the Economy registered 0.7% of primary red, which responded to the fact that the treasury’s income was higher than expected due to the rise in international commodity prices -and the collection of more rights of exports that this implied- and the collection of the extraordinary contribution to the great fortunes. On the spending side, however, some relevant items such as social spending and retirement spending had a cut in real terms.